Episode 56: The Suburb Strategy
Guest: Deborah Pickett (D) - Candidate for US House of Representative (IN-05)
Complete show notes and more at https://scottaaronrogers.substack.com
https://pickettforcongress.com/
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pickettforcongress-1
I’ve spoken often in this space of the quirks, pitfalls, and idiosyncrasies of our two-party arrangement in this country, and the all-or-nothing, first-past-the-post voting system most electoral jurisdictions use that ensure such an setup. In political science, this is known as Duverger’s Law.
So, instead of a multi-party system, with each party representing a different voting bloc, the disparate factions sort into coalitions within the two major parties and these alliances change over time in response to changing real-world conditions and strategic considerations. This is how we’ve gone from the pro-slavery Democratic Party of the 1800’s and their radical abolitionist Republican counterparts, to the white nationalist GOP of Donald Trump and their pro-diversity Democratic analogues.
For example, the Miller Center at the University of Virginia describes the New Deal coalition, “with FDR at its head, the Democratic Party put together a formidable coalition whose main components were lower-income groups in the great cities—African Americans, union members, and ethnic and religious minorities, many from recent immigrant groups—and the traditional source of Democratic strength, "the Solid South." Meanwhile, the Republican coalition of this era consisted of the college-educated professional managerial class, corporate and business interests, mainline Protestants, and libertarians.
These alliances fell apart in response to the civil rights movement, the Vietnam War, and the economic crisis of the 1970’s. In particular, Goldwater, Nixon, and Reagan employed the “Southern Strategy” to coax small town, rural, and southern conservatives - and the newly powerful bloc of evangelicals - out of the Democratic Party and into the Republican party with “dog-whistle” language like the pied pipers of racism.
Over the course of many years, as many of these “deplorables” came aboard, large numbers of liberal Republicans (which used to be a thing) jumped ship, with the professional managerial class and mainline Protestants largely moving into a reimagined Democratic coalition.
By now, the Southern Strategy is well documented and, if you’re listening to me, I bet you’ve heard of it; but along with the racists, another faction, former Trotskyite Marxists disillusioned by the authoritarian turn of Soviet communism, jumped from the Democratic to the Republican coalition in response to the social unrest of the era. From an article in The Week magazine from 2015,
“It started out as an insult. The founders of the movement were liberal intellectuals who became disenchanted with the direction of the American left during the 1960s and 1970s. Their original goal was to reform the Democratic Party from within. But mainstream leftists scoffed at these people who called themselves new, or neo-, liberals, saying it was more apt to call them neo-conservatives. The first neocons soon embraced the name. To them the prefix highlighted the fact that while they had once been leftists, they now had a new orientation. Irving Kristol, the godfather of the movement, defined a neoconservative as "a liberal who has been mugged by reality."
These folks still adhered to one of the core beliefs of liberalism, that the federal government could be a force for good. They supported the civil rights movement and thought a well-conceived welfare state was a net positive, but were driven by vehement anti-communism and a commitment to aggressive American military intervention to oppose the countercultural revolution, the antiwar movement, the 1972 McGovern campaign. These former Cold War liberals came to form one of the most influential factions of the Reaganite Republican Party.
Since this period of realignment in the 70’s, the neoliberal consensus has replaced the New Deal consensus. Big GOP wins throughout the 1980’s led Democrats to move right on both economic and foreign policy. This, from American Affairs in winter of 2017,
“…both blocs supported “free trade,” low corporate taxes, curtailed labor rights, the primacy of shareholder interest, winner-takes-all compensation, and financial deregulation. Both blocs elected leaders who sought “grand bargains” aimed at cutting entitlements. The key differences between them turned on recognition, not distribution.”
So, for the last 40 years, give or take, this worldview has come to dominate both parties, with Republicans representing a reactionary neoliberalism, and Democrats espousing a more progressive neoliberalism. The same article continues,
“At the core of this ethos were ideals of “diversity,” women’s “empowerment,” and LGBTQ rights; post-racialism, multiculturalism, and environmentalism. These ideals were interpreted in a specific, limited way that was fully compatible with the [financialization] of the US economy.”
My guest today swam in these waters for some time, and learned a great deal. She kept some of these ideas, evolved on others, and discarded the remainder. Deborah Pickett is a Democrat running for Congress in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, currently occupied by the reactionary Republican Victoria Spartz. This predominantly white jurisdiction is the wealthiest congressional district in Indiana, and is comprised of Hamilton, Madison, Delaware, Grant, Tipton, and most of Howard County - including the northern suburbs of Indianapolis, like Carmel, Noblesville, Fishers, and Westfield, as well as Muncie, Kokomo, Anderson, and Marion. From her campaign website,
“Ms. Pickett proudly served in the U.S. Army Reserve, researched international trade and economic issues for the Hudson Institute, and has been a tenacious advocate for Hoosiers of all generations. Her admiration for Hoosier’s innovative spirit and hard work make her an unwavering advocate for the people of the 5th District.
In partnership with the people of Indiana, Ms. Pickett will lead the charge for smart policy, effective and efficient government, and helping the people of Indiana help themselves. She believes that the people of Indiana know the best and most workable solutions for themselves and their families, and they deserve to be at the forefront of the decision-making process.”
In this conversation, we will discuss her youth growing up on the Hudson River in New York and the environmentalism she learned from her parents and grandparents. We’ll also talk about her time as a researcher with a neoconservative think tank many years ago before diving into some of the big issues in this race: the economy, healthcare, education, and national security.
Cited in the interview:
Hudson River power plant protests: https://hudsonrising.nyhistory.org/hudson-highlands-part-1/
National Resources Defense Council:
https://www.nrdc.org/
Hudson River cleanup: https://www.epa.gov/hudsonriverpcbs/hudson-river-cleanup
The “Rules-Based International Order”: https://www.parleypolicy.com/post/the-rules-based-international-order-explained
Fossil fuels vs rare earth minerals: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary
Hudson Institute: https://www.hudson.org/about
RAND Corporation’s early history: https://tnsr.org/2021/09/moral-choices-without-moral-language-1950s-political-military-wargaming-at-the-rand-corporation/
Herman Kahn: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/06/27/fat-man
The trade-offs of neoliberalism: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/tariffs-free-trade-dead/678417/
How the 401(k) replaced a pension: https://www.epi.org/publication/retirement-in-america/
Eliminate the Social Security tax cap: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-security-benefits-tax-cap-2023/
Number of Americans depending mostly on Social Security: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v77n2/v77n2p1.html
Decouple healthcare from employment: https://unitedstatesofcare.org/covid-19-exposed-fragility-of-job-connected-health-insurance/
Medicare For All would save money: https://www.citizen.org/news/fact-check-medicare-for-all-would-save-the-u-s-trillions-public-option-would-leave-millions-uninsured-not-garner-savings/
Cost to bring a new drug to market: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2820562
Tax dollars pay for much drug research and development: https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/us-tax-dollars-funded-every-new-pharmaceutical-in-the-last-decade
Skyrocketing CEO compensation of the neoliberal era: https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2022/
Hudson Institute on “school choice”: https://www.hudson.org/education/restore-educational-excellence-end-governments-monopoly-schools-bill-barr
The “bad teacher” myth: https://radicalscholarship.com/2023/02/16/the-myth-of-the-bad-teacher-2023
The demise of neighborhood schools: https://www.wbur.org/npr/439450644/what-else-we-lose-when-a-neighborhood-school-goes-away
School funding based on local property taxes is discrimination: https://www.right-to-education.org/ar/node/741
Lake County education referendum: https://www.lakeshorepublicmedia.org/2023-11-08/schools-in-lake-county-forced-to-make-touch-decisions-after-losing-referendum-votes
Project 2025 and public education: https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/how-project-2025-would-devastate-public-education
Victoria Spartz controversies: https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2024/06/11/rep-victoria-spartz-is-simply-unreliable-and-thats-the-kindest-description-available/
Russia still interfering in US elections: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-russia-is-using-artificial-intelligence-to-interfere-in-elections
Elon Musk a national security risk: https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-biden-harris-assassination-post-x/
At the top of the show, I talked about the two party system, different factions moving around within that system, the New Deal consensus, and the neoliberal order which replaced it as the dominant political worldview in the United States over the last 40+ years.
If the last ten to fifteen years have seemed like a period of chaos, that’s because we are living amid another major reordering of the parties, just like 1968-1980. This is the breakdown of the neoliberal order. The global financial crisis of 2007-08 kickstarted this era of instability and the new consensus has yet to coalesce. I’ve used this one before, but nothing sums up the current moment better than the following quote from early-20th century Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci, “The old world is dying and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters.”
The article I referenced earlier in American Affairs talks about attacks on the dominant paradigm from both left and right vis-a-vis the 2016 election,
“Both Sanders and Trump excoriated the neoliberal politics of distribution. But their politics of recognition differed sharply. Whereas Sanders denounced the “rigged economy” in universalist and egalitarian accents, Trump borrowed the very same phrase but colored it nationalist and protectionist. Doubling down on long-standing exclusionary tropes, he transformed what had been “mere” dog whistles into full-throated blasts of racism, misogyny, Islamophobia, homo- and transphobia, and anti-immigrant sentiment. The “working-class” base his rhetoric conjured was white, straight, male, and Christian, based in mining, drilling, construction, and heavy industry. By contrast, the working class Sanders wooed was broad and expansive, encompassing not only Rust Belt factory workers, but also public-sector and service workers, including women, immigrants, and people of color.”
Sanders ran as a progressive populist, Trump as a reactionary populist. But, neither’s take on populism were realized. Bernie narrowly lost his primary to Hillary Clinton, while the orange menace pulled a bait-and-switch,
“the policies of President Trump have diverged from the campaign promises of candidate Trump. Not only has his economic populism vanished, but his scapegoating has grown ever more vicious. What his supporters voted for, in short, is not what they got. The upshot is not reactionary populism, but hyper-reactionary neoliberalism.”
The Biden presidency was supposed to represent some sort of return to normal. I’ve touted his relatively progressive domestic record. But, let me be clear: normal, the neoliberal consensus, sucked. Labor unions were disempowered, wages for all but the richest among us stagnated, over $50 trillion was funneled from the bottom 90% to the top 1% in the last half century. The oligarchs have picked the good meat from the planet’s carcass, while the rest of us fight over the scraps. The old world deserves to die. But what kind of world is to be birthed in its place?
I don’t go down this rabbit hole to disparage Deborah Pickett. Quite the contrary. Just like Cinde Wirth down in the 6th district, she’s a highly-intelligent big systems thinker. I value her policy chops, because she understands all sides of big, important, global issues. It’s not her that’s got me in a mood. I know goddamn well a leftist like me isn’t going win Carmel, Fishers, and Noblesville. It’s gonna take centrists. I guess I was triggered by the company she used to keep, but her work for the neoconservative Hudson Institute was decades ago, and I take her evolution in good faith. While we probably still disagree on many issues (and that’s okay, democracy is messy) we just heard her express support for basic universal healthcare, guaranteed, automatically-enrolled, untethered to an employer. We heard her advocate for high-quality public schools, higher taxes on the rich, and, oh yeah, a democratic republic with personal rights and freedoms like reproductive health, choice of partner, or whether one wants gender-affirming care.
Because that’s what this is really about, beating back the authoritarians like Trump, and Musk, and Netanyahu, and Putin, and their useful minions like Victoria Spartz, who would destroy the very institutions (however flawed they are) on which those rights and freedoms rest. It will take a popular alliance between center and left to defeat fascism. Deborah Pickett is on the right side of that fight. So please, if you live in the fifth district, vote for her enthusiastically and drag your friends to the polls to do the same.
But, let me close with this. I’ve long dreamed of building a New Deal coalition for the 21st century, a Green New Deal coalition perhaps. And I believe this will require something along the lines of a reverse Southern strategy, like peeling the largely Republican suburban middle class away from the increasingly unhinged MAGA wing of the party. This process is already underway. Call it the Suburb strategy.
So, in the name of democracy, to those wandering neoconservatives, I say warily, welcome home. It’s good to have you back under the big tent. But please, check your free market fundamentalism and preemptive wars at the flap.
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Episode 56: The Suburb Strategy